So after a disheartening loss to Oregon and a downright embarrassing loss to UCLA, where do Penn State football’s Playoff chances sit?
Well, as one could imagine, they are quite low.
Per ESPN’s Football Power Index, Penn State has a 2.5% chance to make it to the Playoff.
The team that started the season ranked No. 2 in the country now has 42 teams ahead of it in Playoff probability. Teams that have a better chance to make the Playoff, per ESPN, include Auburn, Cincinnati, East Carolina, James Madison, Kansas (where Penn State OC Andy Kotelnicki used to coach), Tulane and Washington.
HOW FPI WORKS
Although it wouldn’t take a deep dive into analytics to see that Penn State is in trouble, FPI is, after all, one system, so it must be taken with a grain of salt to an extent.
By definition, FPI is a “predictiverating system developed by ESPN that measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results in American football. Each team’s FPI rating is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams value, as measured by a function of expected points added (EPA). That rating is the basis for FPI’s game-level and season-level projections.”
THE GOOD NEWS
Photo by Matt Lynch, Nittany Sports Now
The silver lining is that Penn State still controls its Playoff destiny. That might sound crazy, considering what’s happened the last two weeks.
But think about it.
If Penn Stage won its last seven regular-season games, it would end the year 10-2. To go 10-2, it would have to beat No. 1 Ohio State on the road and No. 7 Indiana at home in back-to-back weeks, as part of a four-game stretch that also includes tough outs in Iowa (away) and Nebraska (home).
It’s a long shot, especially considering coach James Franklin’s record against Ohio State (1-10).
With that said, this is still a team that has most players back from last year’s College Football Playoff semi finalists. So although it’s unlikely to say the least, it’s still possible for Penn State to make it back to the dance.
Penn State takes on Northwestern Saturday from Beaver Stadium on FS1. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30.
