Penn State football has nine opponents left on its schedule.
Per ESPN analytics, here’s a ranking of those matchups, from toughest to easiest.
PENN STATE FOOTBALL SCHEDULE: OHIO STATE
No surprise here. Ohio State is the odds on favorite to win the Big Ten and are the team many feel will be the No. 1 seed going into the College Football Playoff. Even with Penn State being at home, the odds are against it getting what would be its second win over Ohio State in James Franklin’s 10-plus seasons as coach. Ohio State has a 61.9% chance to win per ESPN, making it by far Penn State’s toughest game.
PENN STATE FOOTBALL SCHEDULE: USC
Again, no surprises. Despite a loss at Michigan this past Saturday, USC is still ranked No. 13, by far the highest-rated opponent Penn State plays next to Ohio State. Penn State will also have to play USC on the road, which is never easy. It remains to be seen whether safety KJ Winston, who Franklin said last week was out with a “long-term” injury, will be good to go by then. If Winston can’t play, that would make things all the more difficult for Penn State. As it stands, Penn State is the slightest of favorites over USC, with ESPN giving Penn State a 50.3% chance to win. That’s about as close to 50-50 as it gets, and we’ll see if the point spread reflects that.
PENN STATE FOOTBALL SCHEDULE: MARYLAND
Maryland is Penn State’s third-toughest remaining opponent but Franklin is 8-2 lifetime against his old employer. With an 80.7% win probability, PSU is a good bet to move to 9-2.
PENN STATE FOOTBALL SCHEDULE: MINNESOTA
Minnesota’s season has been a mixed bag so far. The Gophers do have two shutouts, which not a lot of teams can claim through just four games, but the two losses— to North Carolina and Iowa— have both been at home and both been disheartening. Minnesota lost to UNC after missing a would-be game-winning field goal and to Iowa by three scores this past weekend. Yes, Minnesota did take the Governor’s Victory Bell the last time it played Penn State at home but the odds don’t look good for a repeat. Penn State’s win probability is at 81.5.
PENN STATE OPPONENT:
WASHINGTON
To paraphrase the late, great Toby Keith, Washington ain’t as good as it once was. Last season, UW made it to the national championship game. This season, it lost to Washington State at home. Still, Washington is 3-1 overall and took care of its first Big Ten opponent last week with a 24-5 win over Northwestern. It’s next four opponents, at Rutgers (3-0), vs. Michigan (3–1), at Iowa (3-1) and at Indiana (4-0) will all be challenges, and we’ll know a lot more about Washington by the time it comes to Penn State for the Nov. 9 clash. As of now, Penn State has an 85% chance to win, per ESPN. That’s also slated to be Penn State’s official 2024 White Out game, with the unofficial one scheduled for this Saturday against Illinois. Speaking of that…
PSU OPPONENT: ILLINOIS
Illinois is hot right now. The team turned some heads when it upset then-No. 19 Kansas Week 2 and turned even more heads two weeks later when it upset No. 22 Nebraska on the road in overtime. When Penn State fans saw Illinois on the 2024 schedule, most of them probably didn’t picture Illinois being No. 19 by the last weekend of September. Well, it’s happened. ESPN still likes Penn State in this one, giving it an 86.2% chance to win.
PSU OPPONENT: WISCONSIN
For months, it looked like Wisconsin’s’ quarterback for this game would be Tyler Van Dyke.
But Van Dyke suffered an injury in Wisconsin’s 42-10 loss to Alabama in Madison Sept. 13.
Through two games, Van Dyke had completed 43 of 68 passes for 422 yards and a touchdown, leading Wisconsin to a 2-1 record with wins over Western Michigan and South Dakota. After Van Dyke’s injury, Braedyn Locke played the rest of the game, going 13 for 26 with 125 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions. Locke is in his second season with Wisconsin, having started three games in 2023.
Depending on how Locke performs, Penn State’s Oct. 26 clash with Wisconsin in Madison could have just gotten a lot easier. As it sits, Penn State has an 88.6% chance to win.
PURDUE
Purdue has played one ranked team so far this season and lost 66-7. Yeah, this might get ugly. Penn State is currently has a 94.5% chance to win.
UCLA
UCLA’s Big Ten debut ended with a 29-point loss to Indiana at home. Not exactly an auspicious start, eh? Coach DeShaun Foster’s team, is, indeed, in LA but it may be a while before it’s in the Big Ten’s elite. ESPN’s odds are reflective of the differences in the two programs. Penn State has a 95.5% chance to win. It was announced earlier this week that this game will be that week’s Fox Big Noon Kickoff.
