Sometimes, teams rise or fall in the rankings without playing, and that’s what happened to Penn State this week.
ESPN’s FPI— which had Penn State at No. 5 after Week 1– dropped PSU to No. 7 after a closer-than-expected win over Bowling Green and dropped it two more spots after a bye week.
PSU is now No. 9 behind Texas, Alabama, Ohio State, Tennessee, Georgia, Ole Miss, Notre Dame and Miami. Penn State hosts Ohio State Nov. 2 in what’s by far the most anticipated game on PSU’s schedule.
ESPN’s computer-generated FPI has updated going into Week 4 of College Football📈📉https://t.co/MjspnCTQo2 pic.twitter.com/78Lw0Qekzz
— On3 (@On3sports) September 15, 2024
This is understandable since seven of the eight teams ahead of Penn State are undefeated and have looked impressive for the most part in their wins. The head-scratcher is Notre Dame, which lost to four-touchdown underdog Northern Illinois Sept. 7.
Well, there’s a science to it.
By definition, FPI is a “predictive rating system developed by ESPN that measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results in American football. Each team’s FPI rating is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams value, as measured by a function of expected points added (EPA). That rating is the basis for FPI’s game-level and season-level projections.”
Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Oregon is No. 11, followed by fellow conference newbie USC at 12.
3-0 Indiana— which clocked UCLA 42-13 in the Rose Bowl Saturday night— is No. 19, followed by Michigan (21) and Nebraska (25). Penn State doesn’t play Oregon, Indiana, Michigan or Nebraska this season but does play USC Oct. 12 in the Colisuem.
Ultimately, FPI makes no difference in determining who will make the College Football Playoff. The first Playoff rankings will be revealed Tuesday, Nov. 5.
