Yes, USC seriously has greater odds of making the College Football Playoff than Penn State.
This isn’t an opinion, but rather a fact, at least according to ESPN’s College Football Power index.
According to this metric, Penn State, ranked No. 2, has a 53.2% chance of making the Playoff.
USC, ranked nowhere, has a 59.1% chance.
USC isn’t the only team ranked below Penn State that has higher odds. No. 6 Georgia (60.7%), No. 17 Ole Miss (61.3%), No. 7 Texas (63.5%) and No. 4 Oregon (81.3%) also have higher odds.
So, naturally, does No. 1 Ohio State, which has the best playoff odds at 83.1%..
But USC is the one that will stick out here.
Why exactly does it have higher odds than Penn State?
THE EXPLANATION
Penn State tight end Tyler Warren runs against USC on Oct. 12, 2024. — Angel Pena / Nittany Sports Now
Here’s a possible explanation for USC having higher odds.
It all has to do with the schedule.
Add Nittany Sports Now as a preferred source in Google! Click here to add us.USC has three top 10 teams on the schedule: No. 9 Illinois (Sept. 27), No. 8 Notre Dame (Oct. 18) and No. 4 Oregon (Nov. 22), all on the road.
If USC can win just one of those games and finish 10-2, odds are good it will make the Playoff.
Penn State, on the other hand, does play Oregon (home) and Ohio State (away). But aside from that, No. 20 Indiana (home) is the only ranked opponent on the schedule.
So if Penn State doesn’t split with Oregon and Ohio State, it won’t have much wiggle room.
HOW FPI WORKS
Here is how ESPN’s FPI ratings work.
By definition, FPI is a “predictive rating system developed by ESPN that measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results in American football. Each team’s FPI rating is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams value, as measured by a function of expected points added (EPA). That rating is the basis for FPI’s game-level and season-level projections.”
At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter.
This is the most talented Penn State team in at least three decades.
If Penn State plays up to its potential, it will make the College Football Playoff, and could go all the way.
Penn State takes on Villanova Saturday at 3:30 in Beaver Stadium on FS1.
