The last time Penn State basketball beat Iowa on the road was Dec. 2, 2017. For perspective, Ace Baldwin Jr. was still a sophomore at St. Frances Academy.
On Friday, seven years after that last win, the Hawkeyes extended its winning streak at home against the Nittany Lions to five after Freddie Dilione V didn’t get the potential game-winning shot off in time. In a game that Iowa led for all but six minutes and three seconds, Penn State continued to show its determination – clawing back from a late eight-point deficit – but it wouldn’t be enough as the final buzzer sounded.
Penn State, currently owning a 3-6 conference record, sits 15th in the Big Ten standings following the loss. Mike Rhoades’ team fights to stay within striking distance, but does it have enough to land the knockout blow? As the Nittany Lions fight for its postseason life (the top 15 teams make the Big Ten Tournament), what is the bad and the good following Friday’s defeat?
B1G ROAD STRUGGLES FOR PENN STATE
Penn State’s three conference wins have come at home, with wins against then-No. 8 Purdue, Northwestern and Rutgers. Defending the Bryce Jordan Center hasn’t been difficult for the Nittany Lions, as it has a 10-1 record (10-2 home record accounts for the Palestra game). The road is where issues have arisen in Rhoades’ second year. For the season, PSU is 1-4 as the visitor and is yet to win a conference game away from State College. The loss to Iowa was Penn State’s fourth straight on the road in Big Ten play. With 11 games left on the schedule, winning on the road might determine PSU’s postseason, both conference and NCAA.
Six of the final 11 games will be at opponent arenas with a west coast trip sandwiched between two AP top-20 rivals. The first of those ranked matchups will be on Monday as Penn State travels to Ann Arbor, Michigan, to take on the No. 21 Michigan Wolverines – which could have added motivation coming off a season-worst 27-point loss to No. 11 Purdue. The next road trip comes against UCLA and USC, which have a combined 9-8 conference record, but the latter has won seven of its last 10. The regular season will then end at No. 18 Wisconsin.
While 15 teams will make the conference tournament come March, Penn State is only two games up from the 18th spot in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions could be buffered from falling out of the playoff race with a strong home record but failing to capitalize on the road could be the difference between keeping its tournament hopes alive and losing them completely.
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In all four of Penn State’s road conference losses, the average margin of defeat has been 12.25. That number is heavily influenced by the 39-point loss to the Fighting Illini, and PSU was out of that game by the 4:42 mark of the first half courtesy of a 34-4 run by Illinois. In the other three games (Rutgers, Michigan State and Iowa), Penn State lost by an average of 3.3 points.
The Nittany Lions climbed out of a 17-point hole against Rutgers early in December and were within two with one minute and 56 seconds left. Against Michigan State, PSU trailed by 10 with five minutes remaining but pulled within three after a 10-3 run. Had it not been for Baldwin’s one miss from the charity strip and some late-game heroics from Jaden Atkins, Penn State could’ve had a chance to tie it at 84 all (Zach Hicks hit his third three on the ensuing possession for what it was worth). On Friday, Rhoades’ squad trailed by eight with three and a half minutes left before shutting off the water for Iowa and going on a 7-0 run. Penn State had three chances to win in the final 53 seconds but couldn’t find the bottom of the net.
It would be easy to default to the negative on all three losses. “They’re always digging themselves out of a hole.” “They can’t finish the job.” But, zooming out and seeing the big picture reveals that this is just the beginning of what Rhoades is building at Penn State. In just his second year, he has three wins against AP top-15 opponents and has signed in the highest-rated recruiting class in the history of Penn State basketball.
As Rhoades continues to lay this program’s foundation and as the talent level continues to increase, it’s hard not to imagine that close games will begin to tilt in the favor of the Nittany Lions. With that future in mind, these close losses can begin to feel almost comforting, as this could be the worst PSU hoops will be for years to come.
