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According to Analytics: Who Have Been Penn State Football’s Best Offensive Players?

Nick Singleton rips off a long second half touchdown run (Photo by Matt Lynch, Nittany Sports Now)

Penn State sits 2-0 at its first of two bye weeks in 2024. It wasn’t an easy road to 2-0, with a commanding season-opening win against West Virginia and a startling performance against MAC Bowling Green. Most people would think the roles were reversed if they had to guess before the season.

Regardless, a 2-0 start and Kent State next on the calendar prepares PSU for a critical conference schedule facing the new-look Big Ten. How did Penn State fare in its first two tests of the season? The grades are in… some much better than others.

Pro Football Focus graded tight end Tyler Warren as Penn State’s most efficient offensive player (81.4) and fourth-best tight end overall (90) against Bowling Green. Warren especially thrives in the passing game, ranking fifth-best in the country with a 90.7 pass grade. He’s third in the Big Ten behind Iowa tight end Zach Ortwerth (91) and Max Klare (91) of Purdue. 44% of Warren’s snaps have come in the slot. His pass-blocking grade of 72.2 is the best of any non-offensive lineman.

Quarterback Drew Allar slots fifth on the offensive side at 71.9 with a 70.4 rushing grade. Beau Pribula is the second-highest-rated offensive player, with a 78 rating through two appearances. Allar is 24-37 (65% completion) for 420 yards, five touchdowns, one interception, and a 199.4 QB rating this year under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. Allar (51 yards) and Pribula (37) have combined for 88 rushing yards. 

Nicholas Singleton (77.5), Trey Wallace (76.3), and Allar round out the top five. Tight end Khalil Dinkins slots fourth at 76.9, but only through eight snaps. Singleton’s 43.9 pass-blocking grade is a tad concerning but tends to give way to Kaytron Allen (70.3 grade) in pass protection. Singleton rushed for more than 100 yards in both performances – 223 total – and is averaging nine yards per carry. Singleton is now the heavier of the two backs, and Allen struggled against WVU, but Allen remains a viable threat in the passing attack and carried the ball two fewer times than Singleton (26). It’s splitting hairs to show concern with Allen now.

Wallace looked like the No. 1 wide receiver the program significantly missed last season when hurt. He didn’t catch a pass the following week. Warren and Omari Evans combined for 10 catches and a touchdown.

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PFF regards PSU’s offensive line in a fairly decent position. Penn State falls 32nd in pass blocking across the nation (77.8), sixth in the Big Ten. On the contrary, run blocking grades poorly at a 59.7 clip.

JB Nelson leads the way in the passing game (85), and is one of the main struggling linemen run blocking (60). Olaivavega Ioane is the leader in the clubhouse run blocking (68.6) and solid pass protecting (81.5) Ioane grades as the best offensive lineman of the five starters.

The most glaring negative grade falls at the feet of Julian Fleming. A senior transfer from Ohio State, Fleming hasn’t lived up to lofty expectations in what many see as a thin wide receiver room. Fleming caught one pass against Bowling Green and was held without a catch in the opener. His 51 overall and run-blocking grades are in the bottom fourth of the program offensively through 70 total snaps. Highly-regarded freshman offensive lineman Cooper Cousins owns a surprisingly low 55.8 ranking in only 20 snaps but a 76.1 pass-blocking grade.

It’s only 2/12ths of the regular season consumed in mid-September. Some people can get caught up in PFF numbers and overanalyze the data. When simplifying the game, the grades reflect similar thoughts developed through the simple eye test. Kotelnicki’s offense has been solid throwing the football and progressing in the rushing attack. 

Penn State hosts Kent State next Saturday at 3:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network.

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