The ESPN prediction machine has its forecasts for each of Penn State football’s 12 regular-season games.
Here’s what it came out with.
MARSHALL
As expected, FPI has PSU beating Marshall as almost a sure thing, with a 95.5% win probability.
TEMPLE
Similar story. FPI gives PSU a 92.5% chance to beat Temple.
BUFFALO
This is the safest bet yet as far as FPI is concerned. The win probability is at 96.4%.
WISCONSIN
This could be a tricky matchup, although PSU is at home. At least one PSU beat writer has Wisconsin pulling an upset. But FPI still likes PSU with a comfortable 80.3% probability.
NORTHWESTERN
Penn State’s first away game in the Big Ten is one some feel could be tricky, especially considering it will be the first game in Northwestern’s new stadium. FPI likes PSU , but at a relatively modest probability of 77.4%.
USC
This could well be a top 10 matchup, which is why PSU chose it as its annual White Out game. If all goes according to plan for each team, Penn State will be a slight favorite at home. That lines up with what FPI has, which is a 63.4% win probability for Penn State.
MICHIGAN
The road doesn’t get any easier for Penn State after the USC game.
They’ll take on what could well be a highly ranked Michigan team in “The Big House.”
Ranked matchups generally favor the home team, and this holds for Penn State against both Michigan and USC. FPI has Penn State with a 33.8% chance to beat Michigan.
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PURDUE
Purdue projects to be the Big Ten’s bottom feeders. FPI gives PSU an 89.1% win probability.
WASHINGTON
This one is split down the middle. Penn State will travel across the country to face a good Washington team that comes into the season ranked one spot above PSU at No. 17.
ESPN has Penn State with a 48.7% win probability.
MINNESOTA
Minnesota makes bowl games more often than not under P.J. Fleck.
Nonetheless, FPI has PSU with an 87.6% chance to beat the Gophers.
RUTGERS
In what must be an ode to Pittsburgh Penguins superstar Sidney Crosby, Penn State has an 87.7% chance to beat Rutgers.
MARYLAND
PSU hasn’t lost in College Park since Maryland joined the Big Ten in 2014, and as of now, isn’t expected to start this season. FPI has it with a 79.1% win probability.
