ESPN’s FPI now has Penn State favored in every game.
To be clear, this isn’t a drastic difference than it was.
Before the season, Penn State was favored in all but two games, ranked road tilts at Michigan and Washington.
But with Michigan winning a game against Western Michigan that many feel it deserved to lose and Washington looking underwhelming in a 24-10 win over rival Washington State, the win probability model feels good enough about Penn State to have it favored in both of those games.
Penn State now has a 56.4% chance to beat Michigan and a 60.4% chance to beat Washington.
Here’s an updated look at what each remaining Penn State game looks like per FPI.
TEMPLE
Similar story. FPI gives PSU a 94.2% chance to beat Temple.
BUFFALO
This is the safest bet yet as far as FPI is concerned. The win probability is at 98.1%.
WISCONSIN
This could be a tricky matchup, although PSU is at home. At least one PSU beat writer has Wisconsin pulling an upset. But FPI still likes PSU with a comfortable 87.7% probability.
NORTHWESTERN
Penn State’s first away game in the Big Ten is one some feel could be tricky, especially considering it will be the first game in Northwestern’s new stadium. FPI likes PSU , but at a relatively modest probability of 82.1%
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USC
This could well be a top 10 matchup, which is why PSU chose it as its annual White Out game. If all goes according to plan for each team, Penn State will be a slight favorite at home. That lines up with what FPI has, which is a 61.8% win probability for Penn State.
PURDUE
Purdue projects to be the Big Ten’s bottom feeders. FPI gives PSU an 93.1% win probability.
MINNESOTA
Minnesota makes bowl games more often than not under P.J. Fleck.
Nonetheless, FPI has PSU with an 89.7% chance to beat the Gophers.
RUTGERS
Penn State has an 96.2% chance to beat Rutgers.
MARYLAND
PSU hasn’t lost in College Park since Maryland joined the Big Ten in 2014, and as of now, isn’t expected to start this season. FPI has it with a 82.1% win probability.
