Penn State will attempt to do something it has never done before: win five consecutive NCAA Wrestling Championships.
If PSU pulls it off, it would join only two traditional blue-blood programs to accomplish that feat in Iowa, which won nine straight from 1978-86 and six straight from 1995-2000, and Oklahoma State, which won six straight from 1937-42.
With heavily favored Penn State on the verge of history, let’s go through a few predictions for this weekend’s NCAA Championships.
1. Will Penn State break the all-time scoring mark it set last year?
In 2025, Penn State made history by scoring 177 points on the way to its fourth straight NCAA title.
This year’s team has a chance to be remembered as one of, if not, the greatest squads ever assembled in college wrestling.
Here is a staggering number: Penn State’s 10 starters have combined for 651 takedowns while allowing just 49. Across 205 total bouts, Penn State has recorded more than 600 more takedowns than their opponents.
I projected Penn State for 127 placement points alone, and that does not even include bonus points. If PSU produces bonus points at a rate similar to last year, another scoring record is well within reach.
Prediction: Yes
2. Will Penn State once again have 10 All-Americans?
Last year, Penn State matched the 2001 Minnesota team by producing 10 All-Americans.
History: Penn State Wrestling Becomes 2nd Team Ever to Produce 10 All-Americans
With eight bona fide national title contenders in the lineup, the biggest question marks come at 141 with Braeden Davis and at 285 with Cole Mirasola.
Davis drew the No. 7 seed and will likely see Nebraska’s Brock Hardy in the second round.
Hardy pinned Davis Jan. 30, so that potential matchup is a major hurdle.
Many also project Davis to see Rutgers’ Joey Oliveri in the blood round. Oliveri defeated Davis by a 4-2 decision at the Big Ten Championships, which at least provides some optimism if that matchup materializes again.
Davis is a wild card. He did not get the chance to redshirt and fully acclimate to 141 because of Aaron Nagao’s career-ending injury at the Black Knight Invitational in November.
I feel better about Mirasola’s chances of becoming an All-American.
There is a good chance Mirasola will see Iowa’s Ben Kueter in the rubber match of their season series. Mirasola has looked like he is trending in the right direction and appears capable of making a Top 8 run, which would give Penn State an All-American at heavyweight.
Davis certainly has the ability to surprise, but I am not quite ready to predict 10 again.
Prediction: No
3. Will Penn State break its margin-of-victory record?
With betting services even offering odds on which team will finish second, it’s fair to ask whether Penn State can win by an even larger margin than it did in 2024, when it beat Cornell by 100 points and shattered Iowa’s previous record margin of 73.75 from 1986.
Penn State has seven No. 1 seeds, plus Marcus Blaze as the No. 3 seed in a loaded 133-pound bracket. Still, asking this team to produce eight national champions, which would itself be a record, feels like a lot.
At minimum, Penn State’s top-end placement ceiling is enormous. But Ohio State is far too talented to completely disappear in this tournament.
Jesse Mendez at 141 is one of the nation’s premier wrestlers and is in the Hodge Trophy conversation alongside Penn State’s Mitchell Mesenbrink.
Ben Davino, who won the Big Ten title at 133, is another serious contender to win it all.
Top to bottom, Ohio State has enough talent to produce multiple top-eight finishes and remain at least somewhat competitive in the team race.
Prediction: No
Add Nittany Sports Now as a preferred source in Google! Click here to add us.4. Will Penn State set a new mark with six or more individual national champions?
With seven No. 1 seeds and Marcus Blaze also looking capable of winning a title, Penn State has a legitimate chance to break a record it currently shares with other powerhouse programs.
In NCAA Championships history, Penn State, Iowa, and Oklahoma State are the only schools to produce five individual national champions in a single tournament. Penn State did it in 2017 and 2022, Iowa did it in 1986 and 1997, and Oklahoma State also reached that mark in 2005.
Right now, I see two absolute locks for Penn State in Mesenbrink at 165 and Josh Barr at 197. Both have operated at a 100% bonus rate all season and have looked untouchable.
Then there are four more near-locks in my eyes: Luke Lilledahl at 125, Shayne Van Ness at 149, PJ Duke at 157, and Levi Haines at 174.
Penn State’s calling card throughout the Cael Sanderson dynasty has been dominance in the upper weights, especially from 157 through 197.
That said, the lower weights may be the key to this record chase. The last Penn State wrestler to win a national title at 125 was Nico Megaludis in 2016. At 133, Roman Bravo-Young is the only Penn State wrestler, in the Cael era, to win an NCAA title in recent years, doing so in 2021 and 2022.
That is why Lilledahl and Blaze feel so important to the bigger picture.
Then there’s Rocco Welsh, who has become a trendy upset pick among the No. 1 seeds. Much of that comes from his Big Ten Championships run, where all of his matches went beyond regulation, with two ending in tiebreakers and one in sudden victory.
Part of that may simply be people looking for vulnerability in a Penn State lineup that otherwise feels overwhelming. But it also shows Welsh has already been battle-tested in March.
Prediction: Yes
5. My official NCAA Championships predictions
125: Luke Lilledahl, Penn State
133: Jax Forrest, Oklahoma State
141: Jesse Mendez, Ohio State
149: Shayne Van Ness, Penn State
157: PJ Duke, Penn State
165: Mitchell Mesenbrink, Penn State
174: Levi Haines, Penn State
184: Rocco Welsh, Penn State
197: Josh Barr, Penn State
285: Yonger Bastida, Iowa State
Penn State medal count prediction
First: 7
Second: 0
Third: 1 (Marcus Blaze)
Penn State All-Americans
9
Penn State team-point prediction
202.5 (new record)
