Golik: Penn State AD Pat Kraft’s Plan Is Now in a Boom-or-Bust Position

As the Lane Kiffin soap opera unfolded across social media yesterday, Ole Miss athletic director Keith Carter wasted no time. Rather than install an interim head coach, he made an emotional, heat-of-the-moment decision to promote defensive coordinator Pete Golding to the top job.

Will it work? Maybe.

But Ole Miss, at least, now has its head coach.

Before that, Florida, Arkansas and Auburn also filled their vacancies. 

Programs that, like Ole Miss, made midseason coaching changes and found resolution on Sunday by hiring trending Group of Five coaches. 

Names that have frequently appeared on my hot boards; Ryan Silverfield (Arkansas), Alex Golesh (USF), Jon Sumrall (Florida) are now off the market.

Even Michigan State jumped into the fray, moving on from Jonathan Smith, whose Pacific Northwest brand of football never translated to the Big Ten. Within hours, the Detroit Free Press was reporting that the Spartans were turning to Pat Fitzgerald.

And then… there’s Penn State, sitting here today with many still scratching their heads.

Linebacker Tony Rojas posted on X, “so when we gonna know our coach??” accompanied by a face-palm emoji.

That sentiment reflects exactly what many Penn State fans, supporters and even members of the media are thinking.

Josh Pate said on his program that insiders told him SEC schools would have their coaches in place—but Penn State would not. 

With the early National Signing Day window opening Wednesday, Pate’s sources insist only that “Kraft has a plan.”

I’ve learned that when athletic directors push all their chips to the center of the table, the outcome becomes a true boom-or-bust scenario.

And more often than not, it busts because too many variables can derail even the best-crafted plan.

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To Kraft’s credit, the search has been airtight. 

Virtually nothing has leaked, and that silence has fueled even more speculation and hysteria. When the rumor mill is throwing out Power Four names like Lincoln Riley, Kalani Sitake and Josh Heupel as possible “mystery candidates,” it’s a sign of how well-sealed Kraft’s operation is. He deserves credit for that.

Beyond that, though, it’s hard to give Kraft much more praise because he’s arranged the chessboard in a way that demands results.

If Kraft’s plan ultimately succeeds, he’ll have the last laugh. His patience and secrecy will have paid off perfectly.

But the longer this drags on, the more the risk of failure grows.

If Kraft ends up turning to Terry Smith as a last-resort option, the obvious question will be: why did he wait this long? 

The extended uncertainty could torpedo the early signing period, with top prospects either delaying or signing elsewhere.

It would also put Smith in a difficult position. If he is the choice, every additional day of waiting reduces his ability to salvage what remains of the recruiting class and build early momentum.

If the target is Bob Chesney, it’s understandable that the process might stretch into this weekend—James Madison faces Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game. 

That timing would explain the delay, but it would also force Penn State to lean heavily on the transfer portal. Programs like Indiana have flourished with this strategy, USC perfected it early in Lincoln Riley’s tenure and Florida State executed it well under Mike Norvell before losing steam more recently.

Make no mistake: Kraft’s Penn State career is on the line with this hire. Whoever he selects will be measured directly against James Franklin, what Franklin accomplishes at Virginia Tech and what he was or wasn’t able to accomplish at Penn State.

Whether the choice is Chesney, Smith or a still-hidden Power Four candidate, it must work. 

Otherwise, it will be viewed as a massive failure and one that Kraft won’t be able to recover from.