Every year, ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly has various metrics that he provides to break down the landscape of college football.
Connelly did his in-depth analysis of the Big Ten, with him feeling 2025 will be a lot like 2024 with Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State jockeying for Big Ten supremacy.
What were his key takeaways for Penn State? Let’s examine:
Zakee Wheatley tackles Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson.
#1 2025 Penn State Mirrors Previous National Champions
The makeup with Penn State mirrors that of 2023 Michigan Wolverines and 2024 Ohio State Buckeyes. The team’s nucleus were experienced at all levels with senior led groups who had been through the rigor.
2023 Michigan group had endured two consecutive College Football Playoff disappointments and were able to finally put it all together behind a veteran quarterback (JJ McCarthy), the best running back duo (Blake Corum/Donovan Edwards), competent wide receivers who could make a play (Roman Wilson/Cornelius Johnson), young dynamic tight end (Colston Loveland), elite in the trenches on both sides, along with dynamic playmakers in the secondary (Will Johnson).
Last year’s Ohio State team brought in a veteran pocket passer in Will Howard, had the best running back duo in the country in Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, the best wide receivers core in the nation led by Jeremiah Smith, elite in the trenches – especially on defense with Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau coming off the edge and Tyleik Williams up the middle, along with an elite secondary powered by safety Caleb Downs.
This year’s Nittany Lions have similar make up to both. When you have the most starts returning in Connelly’s composite in the conference with 207, coupled with the amount of returning production, it certainly fuels the Penn State hype train.
COLUMBUS, OH – OCTOBER 26: Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day looks at the scoreboard during the game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Ohio State Buckeyes on October 26, 2024, at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)
#2 Penn State Projects For Most Wins But…..
Connelly raved about all the high-end talent returning, this gave Penn State the highest projected win total in the Big Ten (10.4), slightly over Ohio State (10.3) and Oregon (10.1) to go along with the conference’s highest probability to win 11+ games at 47.4%.
Oregon is currently getting penalized by Connelly due to the season ending injury to former five-star wide receiver Evan Stewart. If you know the Ducks, they always seem to have a five-star athlete waiting in the wings and Dakorien Moore is there for them.
Despite the Nittany Lions having a favorable schedule and all the returning talent, Connelly gave Ohio State the best shot to win the Big Ten in two key metrics: 7.7 to 7.4 edge in conference wins to go along with conference title percentage with 23.6% for Ohio State to 19% for Penn State.
Photo by Matt Lynch, Nittany Sports Now: Nick Singleton
#3 Penn State Projected To Have Most Potent Offense
Connelly suggests the strength of Penn State will come offensively.
The conference has three of Connelly’s Top 10 offenses nationally with the Nittany Lions leading they way at 40.6 ranking third nationally.
Penn State edges Oregon at 40.5, which is fourth nationally. It would have been interesting to see how Oregon graded prior to the Stewart injury but it also shows the dropoff to potentially Moore isn’t that great.
Ohio State is seventh nationally at 39.6 in Connelly’s index, this is most likely due to the Buckeyes going with a first time signal caller behind center this season in a battle between Julian Sayin and Lincoln Kienholz.
Connelly gave a proper gauge of the Andy Kotelnicki effect on the Penn State offense. In 2023, prior to Kotelnicki’s arrival Penn State finishing 30th in Connelly’s Offensive SP+ metric, last season they were ninth.
Add Nittany Sports Now as a preferred source in Google! Click here to add us.With Kotelnicki having 76% of his offensive production returning from a season ago, it bodes well that Penn State will be amongst the nation’s best.
#4 Knowles Hire Lauded But Defensive Questions Remain
Connelly considers Knowles amongst the best coordinators in the country. According to Connelly, Knowles’ resume has produced Oklahoma State’s best defense in 15 years, Ohio State’s best in a quarter-century, and Duke’s best in over 60 years.
While Connelly likes all the high end defensive talent returning for Penn State, it still did not get them the top defense in the conference.
Knowles’ former employer and defending national champion Ohio State has the nation’s second best projected defense with a 10.2 grade, Michigan is third nationally at 10.3, with Penn State third in the conference and sixth nationally at a 12.6.
Why the slight for the Nittany Lions?
While Connelly loves Knowles and the high-end talent, he worries about the depth behind it. Of the 17 players in 2024 that had 300 or more snaps on defense, only eight return in 2025 with only two up front on the defensive line.
Connelly mentioned despite the lack of experience, the track records of Knowles and Penn State, who finished seventh or higher in four consecutive seasons in Connelly’s Defensive SP+ metric, you get the benefit of the doubt.
Photo by Matt Lynch, Nittany Sports Now
#5 Win As A Favorite, Lose As A Dog
Connelly feels Penn State is in the position they are in because James Franklin has gotten them to a point they beat everyone they are supposed to. The reason they aren’t any higher by Connelly is they lose to who they are supposed to.
Since 2022, Penn State is 34-2 as a favorite, including 27-0 when favored by at least six points. During the same span as an underdog, the Nittany Lions are 0-6.
As Connelly puts it, Penn State has manufactured themselves a glass ceiling.
In projecting the 10 best games amongst Big Ten teams, Penn State is involved in three such contests: September 27 against Oregon, November 1 against Ohio State, and November 8 against Indiana.
Oregon will be a litmus test for both teams as neither Penn State or Oregon will have played anyone in Connelly’s Top 50.
Ohio State is the game of consequence for both teams. With Connelly predicting Ohio State to win the conference, we see where he goes there. Connelly says this matchup is the biggest game in the nation in 2025 based on his SP+ metrics.
While Indiana may not have the most cache nationally, they did make the College Football Playoffs last season and could be the ideal target for a hangover, if one should exist for the Nittany Lions.
The feel Connelly has, reading between the lines, for Penn State is that the glass ceiling shouldn’t change and Penn State should be 11-1 and in the Big Ten Championship.
