In the land of odds, a big storyline coming into this college football season is if Penn State would make the expanded College Football Playoff, which moved from four teams to 12 after last season.
Per ESPN’s Football Power Index, No. 8 Penn State has a chance to do much more than just make it to the dance.
ESPN FPI has PSU with a 12.4% chance of going unbeaten.
Best Chance of Going Undefeated, per ESPN FPI:
Notre Dame – 22.4%
Penn State – 12.4%
Georgia – 10.3%
Ohio St – 10.1%
Texas – 8.8%
Alabama – 8.1%
Miami – 6.6%
JMU – 6.2%
Boise St – 2.4%
Kansas – 1.9%
UCF – 1.8%
Oregon – 1.8%
Louisville – 1.7%
Ole Miss – 1.5%
Tennessee – 1.4% pic.twitter.com/Vfp3u97h45— College Football Report (@CFBRep) September 3, 2024
This is ahead of any team in the nation. All except Notre Dame, which sits at 22.4%. Despite such high odds of going unbeaten, Notre Dame cannot be one of the four teams to get a playoff bye because it isn’t in a conference.
Penn State is in a conference and therefore will get a playoff bye if it can win the Big Ten.
To do that, it will also need to win at USC— which it plays Oct. 12– and likely beat Ohio State at home Nov. 2
Ohio State isn’t too far behind Penn State or Georgia. UGA has the third-best odds to go undefeated.
ESPN has OSU with a 10.1% chance of going unbeaten. Interestingly, it has the Buckeyes with a less than 43% chance of beating Penn State. Those odds have updated from before the season. Elsewhere in the land of odds, Texas has an 8.8% chance to do undefeated. Alabama is closely behind at 8.1% and Miami is at 6.6%.
Going away from the power four, James Madison has a 6.2% chance to go unbeaten.  Boise State sits at 2.4%. Penn State OC Andy Kotelnicki’s old employer, Kansas, is at 1.9% and Big 12 foe UCF is at 1.8% tied with Big Ten newbie Oregon. Louisville is a the highest-rated ACC team at 1.7% and SEC schools Ole Miss (1.5%) and Tennessee (1.4%) round out the list.
Because of the Notre Dame stipulation, odds are that Penn State would  be No. 1 headed into the playoff if these projections come true. But there are still 11 games to go.
