Which games are Penn State most likely to win?
Which are it most likely to lose?
What are its chances of making the College Football Playoff?
Here are the answers to all of those questions, per ESPN FPI
WEEK 1: PENN STATE AT WEST VIRGINIA
PSU win probability: 77.6%
This might be a little higher than some expected. PSU is a double-digit favorite against West Virginia but the team is going into what will be a hostile environment in Week 1 with three new coordinators. Plus, West Virginia ended up exceeding most expectations last season and finishing 9-4. Nonetheless, FPI likes Penn State’s chances here and puts the likelihood of an upset at fewer than 23 percent.
WEEK 2: PENN STATE VS. BOWLING GREEN
PSU win probability: 96.2%
Bowling Green is Bowling Green. PSU is PSU.
WEEK 3: PSU IS ON A BYE
Penn State’s win and loss probability are both at zero.
WEEK 4: PSU vs. KENT STATE
PSU win probability: 99%
Kent State is Kent State. PSU is PSU. No upset will take place here, and FPI agrees, listing it as Penn State’s most likely win.
WEEK 5: PSU VS. ILLINOIS
PSU win probability: 91.7%
Barring something crazy, Illinois will be coming into Beaver Stadium as a heavy underdog. The last time that happened, PSU suffered maybe its worst loss of the James Franklin era. That nine-overtime catastrophe will be on the minds of plenty PSU fans, as well as PSU’s players who were involved in that game. History fouls always repeat itself, but it would take another massive upset for that to happen.
WEEK 6: PSU VS. UCLA
PSU win probability: 89.4%
UCLA is in LA, as first-year coach DeShaun Foster reminded anybody who didn’t know at Big Ten Media Days last month. UCLA is also in the Big Ten, a fact which is harder to believe for some than where UCLA is located, which means the Mighty Bruins will go to PSU in October. The thought of a rebuilding UCLA squad going into Beaver Stadium and knocking off one of the Big Ten’s heavyweights seems unlikely, and FIP agrees.
WEEK 7: PENN STATE AT USC
PSU win probability: 62.5%
This and the Ohio State game (more on that later) are the two biggest toss-ups per FPI. For as much as he’s been criticized since taking over, as long as Lincoln Riley’s the head coach of USC, the team will be loaded offensively. Poor defense has killed Riley’s teams both at USC and Oklahoma but with Penn State grad D’Anton Lynn now USC’s DC, don’t be surprised if that situation improves. If PSU goes into The Coliseum unbeaten, which is projected to happen, it will likely be favored to beat USC. But this one could get quite interesting.
WEEK 8: PENN STATE BYE WEEK NO. 2
WEEK 9: PENN STATE AT WISCONSIN
PSU win probability: 81.3%
Barring PSU underachieving or Wisconsin overachieving— or both— this will likely have a similar feel to the West Virginia game. PSU would be favored going into a hostile environment. But like WVU, FPI gives PSU quite a high chance to win.
WEEK 10: PENN STATE VS. OHIO STATE
PSU win probability: 49.2%
There’s a realistic chance both of these teams come into the first week of November unbeaten, and if that happens, it will be one of the most anticipated games of the college football season. Because PSU is 1-9 against Ohio State in the Franklin era, many will assume a Buckeye victory, and this will be especially true if Ohio State lives up to its billing as the top team in the Big Ten, if not the country. Despite how good this year’s OSU squad could be and despite what’s happened historically, FPI sees PSU with basically a 50-50 chance at winning this game, which would cause pandemonium in and outside Beaver Stadium.
WEEK 11: PENN STATE VS. WASHINGTON
PSU win probability: 87.4%
If the Michael Penix-led squad that won its first 14 games and came within one more of winning a national title came to Happy Valley under White Out conditions last year, it would have been a big deal. Although the White Out is always a big deal, this year’s Washington team almost certainly will lose a step due to losing Penix and practically everybody else.
WEEK 12: PENN STATE AT PURDUE
PSU win probability: 86.6%
The last time Penn State played in West Lafayette (2022) it needed a last-minute drive to beat Purdue. That probably won’t be the case in 2024. Coach Jeff Brohm moved back to his alma mater Louisville after that season, and since then, Ryan Walters has been trying to build the program back up. Purdue went 4-8 last year and is projected to finish last in the Big Ten this season.
WEEK 13: PENN STATE AT MINNESOTA
PSU win probability: 83.9%
Not too much different from what I wrote about Purdue.
WEEK 14: PENN STATE VS MARYLAND
PSU win probability: 86.9%
Franklin has only lost twice to his former employer: once during his first season, another during the “COVID year” of 2020. Don’t count on loss No. 3 happening on Senior Day at Beaver Stadium.
WHAT ARE PENN STATE FOOTBALL’s PLAYOFF ODDS?
FPI gives Penn State a 59.1 chance to make the playoff, projecting the team to win 10.1 games and lost 2. Additionally, Penn State has a 22.2% chance to win the Big Ten, a 13.3% chance to make the national title game, an 7.1% chance to go undefeated and a 6.6% chance to win the whole thing.
