As the 2025 season is about to kickoff, you would think the realignment conversation should have been quelled to concentrate on the season.
New Maryland athletic director Jim Smith apparently wanted to keep to keep the discourse going.
Smith appeared in an interview this week with Maryland Sports Radio, was asked how many teams will be in the Big Ten by 2030?
“Twenty,” Smith said.
With the Big Ten at 18 teams after former Pac-12 members USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington joined the conference in 2024, which two teams make sense for both Penn State and the Big Ten?
Many will point to Notre Dame finally caving and joining the Big Ten.
I often acknowledge former Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick’s comments he made on The Dan Patrick Show in 2023 about the scenarios of the Fighting Irish joining a conference:
#1 Being able to have its own television deal.
#2 Can keep its non-football sports in a conference.
#3 Access to the College Football Playoff as an independent.
All three criteria are certainly met.
NBC has the luxury of a primetime Big Ten game and Notre Dame football in its portfolio and they are satisfied with what each brings in ad revenue.
The ACC and Big Ten (hockey) are willing to allow Notre Dame to participate in their conference in non-football sports and neither have a desire to boot the Fighting Irish.
The College Football Playoff is a national invitational at the end of the day. If Notre Dame is “qualified” to be invited, there will always be room for the Fighting Irish.
With Notre Dame off the table, which two targets make sense for both Penn State and the Big Ten?
The logical place where the poaching will begin happens in the ACC due to the exit fees dropping to a more manageable $75 million.
The other piece to this puzzle is that when the current Big Ten media deals expire, both Oregon and Washington will be owed a full share instead of their partial shares they receive now.
This is why Big Ten commissioner Tony Pettiti has a motivation for guaranteed playoff spots, expanded playoff, and other ideas.
His inventory that the Big Ten has to deliver for three networks forces the Big Ten to be bigger.
Here are my top two schools the Big Ten should go after that also benefit Penn State.
#1 Miami
When it comes to networks, the old school adage was the same in real estate “Location, Location, Location.”
Streaming has made a large dent into cable providers but there is still a significant population that leans on cable providers.
When you begin to see all these streaming services starting to cost a lot of money to be able to consume content, there seems to be softer eyes on cable.
Population is a big selling point for Miami as a Top 20 market.
Grant you, Georgia Tech being in Atlanta, No. 7 market, Stanford/Cal being in the No. 5 market of San Francisco-Oakland, and SMU in the No. 4 market Dallas-Fort Worth, the issue is, when it comes to football, they either lack national brand appeal as a football brand or not among the Association of American Universities (AAU) that the Big Ten prefers.
Miami checks all those boxes.
Grant you, while the Hurricanes have not won the ACC since joining the conference, the key here is when the Hurricanes are good they draw a big number.
Many expect the Notre Dame and Miami season opener to draw close to 10 million viewers, last year’s Miami/Florida game drew nearly 7 million viewers and neither team was close to what it was.
Miami is one of 25 teams to draw 4 million or more viewers in multiple games during the regular season(Penn State and Miami had two games that drew over 4 million viewers).
Miami finished No. 18 amongst all schools in average viewers for all regular season contests.
In 2023, as an accredited Liaison Committee on Medical Education (LCME) along with being an ABET (Accreditation Board for Engineering and Technology) member, Miami became an AAU school.
That Big Ten Academic Alliance is a big deal, with Miami satisfying those needs you have the academic portion satisfied with the Big Ten.
When you combine that the Big Ten adds the state of Florida to its portfolio, along with the rich football history Miami has, five national championships and 11 Pro Football Hall of Famers, along with the infrastructure upgrades that athletic director Dan Radakovich is leading, this is a slam dunk choice for the Big Ten.
Add Nittany Sports Now as a preferred source in Google! Click here to add us.#2 University of North Carolina
There is no doubt in my mind and other analysts minds, the most coveted piece if the ACC were to become unstable is North Carolina.
The SEC would covet adding a new state, North Carolina, to its portfolio and aligns with commissioner Greg Sankey regional vision.
The Big Ten would like to add another state, especially in the South, that has a fertile recruiting hot bed, as well as one of the biggest athletic brands in all of collegiate sports.
Football tradition is a major strike on North Carolina.
With Bill Belichick entering his first season, I cannot imagine Belichick being around long enough to become a major name.
Mack Brown is a hall of fame coach, but Brown earned that distinction for what he did at Texas, not North Carolina.
The program that produced football legends like Lawrence Taylor, Dre Bly, and Julius Peppers has never won a major bowl (while UNC has two Peach Bowl victories, the status of the Peach Bowl was not classified as a major one like New Year’s Six designation).
Football prestige is lacking for North Carolina, but you get the AAU school that UNC is. That satisfies academics.
North Carolina has market influence in two Top 25 markets: Charlotte and Raleigh. If you combine those markets, that is equivalent to adding another Top 10 market to the portfolio. That is excellent reach.
The elephant you don’t hear, that you have to recognize, is North Carolina basketball.
UNC men’s basketball is like having another football program.
There is going to come a point when football for these conferences reaches true market saturation, the only other revenue generating sport is men’s basketball.
Can you imagine a Big Ten hoops portfolio that consists of UCLA, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, and North Carolina?
The ad revenue is there.
GLENDALE, AZ – DECEMBER 31: Penn State head coach James Franklin interacts with his team after the victory during the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal playoff game against the Boise State Broncos on Tuesday December 31, 2024 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ. (Photo by Nick Tre. Smith/Icon Sportswire)
How Does Miami/North Carolina Benefit Penn State?
It begins with logistics.
Penn State travelled to Los Angeles last year for USC and will for UCLA on October 4. They travel to Washington in 2026 and Oregon in 2027.
The air miles it takes to fly from Harrisburg, Pennsylvania to Miami, Florida is 1,015 air miles.
That is half in comparison to Los Angeles (2,271), Eugene (2,369), and Seattle (2,296).
Harrisburg to Charlotte, North Carolina is even shorter (350 miles).
If Penn State can minimize trips out west with having more geographically friendly foes in North Carolina and Miami, it is a benefit to the athletic department budget as a whole.
With James Franklin and his staff embracing the challenge of landing elite talent in both Florida and in the Carolinas, having a conference member makes it easier to swing athletes to venture up north.
When you add the familiarity reasons athletes typically stay home along with the brands that will give Penn State more resources to be a player to offer more NIL and branding opportunities, it really becomes crystal clear why these two need to become the next in the Big Ten.
