Analyst Has Penn State Falling Short

Ari Wasserman of On3 is predicting Penn State to succumb to a familiar fate this season.

In his latest College Football Playoff projection, Wasserman slots Penn State as a No. 2 seed and receiving a first-round bye. This would mark the first time PSU earns a bye in the 12-team format, created before the 2024 season. 

That’s the good news for Penn State fans. The bad is James Franklin and the team’s fate in the final four. Wasserman predicts Penn State will lose to No. 3 Clemson in the CFP semifinals for the second consecutive year.

He places Clemson losing to No. 1 Texas in the National Championship. This year’s title game will be played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens Jan. 19.

Penn State lost to Notre Dame 27-24, in the Orange Bowl and CFP semifinals last year to close a 13-3 season.

Penn State Drops Orange Bowl to Notre Dame in Heartbreaking Fashion

PSU reached the Big Ten title game and won the Fiesta Bowl before losing a heartbreaker, falling one game short of reaching the national championship.

Last week, Wasserman ranked PSU as his No. 1 team in the country entering the summer. 

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Quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, four starting offensive linemen, defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton, defensive tackle Zane Durant, safety Zakee Wheatley, and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki return with their eyes on the ultimate prize.

PSU added transfer receivers Kyron Hudson (USC), Devonte Ross (Troy), and Trebor Pena (Syracuse) to a revamped wide receiver room. The only main holdovers are Liam Clifford (15 catches) and Tyseer Denmark (two catches during redshirt year). PSU’s top two receivers, Harrison Wallace and Omari Evans, both found new teams through the winter transfer portal.

PSU hosts Nevada Aug. 30 to start what is hyped up to be a season for the ages. PSU plays Oregon (9-27), at Iowa (10-18), at Ohio State (11-1), Indiana (11-8), and at Michigan State (11-15) as five of the main Big Ten matchups to watch that will define Penn State’ season.

Wasserman’s full 2025 CFP projection:

1. Texas
2. Penn State
3. Clemson
4. BYU
5. Ohio State
6. LSU
7. Notre Dame
8. Georgia
9. Oregon
10. Illinois
11. Alabama
12. Boise State