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Penn State-Iowa Game Preview: Nittany Lions Begin Two-Game Road Trip

Penn State Basketball, Iowa Basketball, Game Preview

After a bounce-back win against Rutgers on Monday, Penn State will head to Iowa City, Iowa, to take on the Hawkeyes at Carver-Hawkeye Arena on Friday. This will be the first of two consecutive road games for PSU, as it will travel to No. 21 Michigan on Monday.

The Nittany Lions have only beaten Iowa on the road twice in the last 23 years, with its most recent victory coming in 2017. The two teams split the season series last year, with Iowa winning the most recent matchup 90-81.

PENN STATE’S OUTLOOK

Penn State Basketball, Ace Baldwin Jr.

Penn State hasn’t beaten Iowa on the road since Dec. 2, 2017. (Penn State Athletics)

Iowa enters Friday’s bout losers of three straight. In its most recent defeat, Iowa lost to Minnesota – which had only one other conference win before taking down the Hawkeyes. In that game, Iowa shot 3-for-21 from 3-point range (14.3%) after coming in as the most efficient team from that distance in the Big Ten. The loss to the Golden Gophers was only the second loss at home for the Hawkeyes, who have a 10-2 record when hosting.

Penn State is 3-5 in Big Ten play this season, but all three wins have been at the Bryce Jordan Center. On the road against conference opponents, PSU is 0-3. However, Mike Rhoades’ recent use of zone could cause problems for Iowa, as it has faced the second most zone in the Big Ten and is one of the least efficient teams against the defense according to Synergy Sports:

Iowa Rankings in the Big Ten Against Zone:

  • 151 possessions faced (2nd)
  • 0.954 points per possession (13th)
  • 45.7% field goal rate (10th)
  • 33.3% 3-point rate (13th)
  • 53.9% effective field goal rate (12th)

IOWA (12-7, 3-5)

HEAD COACH

Fran McCaffery (15th season, 292-198)

In the 14 years of the McCaffrey era, the Hawkeyes have only had two losing seasons. Iowa has made the postseason 12 of his 14 seasons (NIT and NCAA) and has appeared in seven of the last 10 NCAA tournaments. McCaffrey is the winningest coach in Iowa history and is the third longest-tenured coach in the Big Ten, behind Tom Izzo (Michigan State) and Matt Painter (Purdue).

Over the last five seasons, Iowa has won one Big Ten Tournament title, appeared in three NCAA Tournaments, and has beaten 21 AP top-25 opponents.

KEY PLAYERS

Owen Freeman, 6-foot-10, Forward

Freeman leads a trio of Hawkeye double-digit scorers, averaging 16.9 points per game on 65.4% shooting (second in the Big Ten). He also leads the team in rebounds (6.5) and blocks (1.9, third in the Big Ten). In conference play, the sophomore big averages 16.1 points (65.1% field goal), 5.8 rebounds and 1.4 blocks. One of the top post-up players in Division I, Freeman is tied for the fourth-most post-ups per game (4.5) and is tied for the third-most points scored with his back to the basket (5.1).

Payton Sandfort, 6-foot-8, Forward

Sandfort is second on the team in scoring (16.5) and rebounding (5.7). He attempts a Big Ten-leading 7.4 3s per game and converts them at a 34.3% clip. Sandfort is constantly hunting shots from beyond the arc, especially in transition, where he is shooting 38.7% on 3s coming during end-to-end changes, per Synergy Sports. Against Big Ten competition, he leads the Hawkeyes with 17.1 points while netting 37.7% of his 3-pointers.

Josh Dix, 6-foot-6, Guard

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The third-leading scorer for Iowa, Dix is averaging 14.1 points on 55/48/84 shooting splits. He also contributes 3.2 rebounds and 2.7 assists a night. In eight games of Big Ten play, his field goal and 3-point percentage have jumped to 56.2% and 55.6%, respectively. A true marksman, Dix ranks in the 96th percentile in catch-and-shoot 3-point accuracy (47.7%).

Josh Dix, Iowa Basketball

Josh Dix is shooting 48.2% from 3-point range during the 2024-25 season. (Iowa Hawkeyes Athletics)

Drew Thelwell, 6-foot-3, Guard

Thelwell is a fifth-year transfer from Morehead State. He is averaging 9.9 points and 3.1 assists and is tied for fourth in the Big Ten with 2.1 steals. One of many volume 3-point shooters for Iowa, Thelwell is connecting on 38.8% of his attempts. Where he has done most of his damage offensively has been in transition, where he is posting a 62.5% effective field goal rate. Thelwell is averaging 10.1 points and 2.1 steals in conference games.

Brock Harding, 6-foot, Guard

The leading assist man for the Hawkeyes, Harding’s 6.3 helpers are good for fourth in the Big Ten. Harding averages 9.5 points and 1.7 steals while shooting 39% from deep as well. The second-year lead guard is the pick-and-roll operator of choice for McCaffery, as Harding ranks in the 67th percentile in screening action efficiency. The sophomore has averaged 8.8 points and seven assists in eight games of conference action.

Pryce Sandfort, 6-foot-7, Forward

The younger brother of Payton, Pryce is the sixth player for Iowa averaging at least eight points (8.4). Pryce is an efficient 3-point shooter like his brother, making 37.9% of his 4.6 attempts. While he plays the fewest minutes out of Iowa’s top six, he has capitalized on his opportunities, especially in spot-up shooting. 45 of his 87 3-pointers have come in these instances and he has made 48.9% of his attempts. His volume from 3 (four attempts) and his efficiency (34.4%) have decreased in eight games of Big Ten play.

KEY STAT: Run and Gun

Iowa has the 22nd fastest adjusted temp on kenpom.com and the 19th most efficient offense on the site. The Hawkeyes’ transition play lies at the core of those two numbers:

  • 395 transition points (12th in the nation)
  • 21.8% of possessions in transition (20th in the nation)
  • 37 transition 3-pointers made (25th in the nation)
  • 64.8% transition effective field goal rate (41st in the nation)

METRICS

Penn State comes into Friday night’s game ranked 48th in KenPom and 49th in NET. Iowa is 61st in KenPom and 63rd in NET.

GAME TIME

Tipoff for Friday’s game is set for 9 p.m. Penn State’s full schedule is available here.

SPREAD

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Nittany Lions are four-point underdogs at Iowa. The Over-Under Total is 168.5. The Moneylines are Penn State +124 and Iowa -148.

TV

Penn State’s game against Iowa will be aired on FS1.

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