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Smeltzer: As Big a Deal as Ohio State Game is, This Isn’t a ‘Must Win’ For Penn State

Penn State HC James Franklin says he wishes he handled questions regarding two dismissed players better.
MADISON, WI - OCTOBER 26: Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin watches a replay on the screen durning a college football game between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Wisconsin Badgers on October 26th, 2024 at Barry Alvarez field inside Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, WI. (Photo by Dan Sanger/Icon Sportswire)

I’m not going to say that Saturday’s game between Penn State and Ohio State doesn’t matter, but I’m also not going to act like Penn State has the weight of the world on its shoulders.

Hey, I get that some people will.

PSU is 1-9 against Ohio State since James Franklin took over as coach in 2014.

The narrative surrounding Penn State football is that it can beat up on the little guys but falls short when the time come to mix it up with the big fellas. This narrative is supported by the fact that Franklin is 3-19 against top 10 opponents in his time at Penn State.

Ohio State has been in the top ten each time Franklin has coached against it. Saturday will be no different.

All of this— plus the fact that College GameDay is in town and Donald Trump almost was— indicates that Franklin and Penn State have a ton of pressure on it. But the truth is, they don’t.

THE PLAYOFF FORMAT CHANGES THINGS

James Franklin & Drew Allar.

If the College Football Playoff were set up the same way it had been last season, a lot more would be on the line Saturday. Whoever loses would have a hell of time finding a way to the Big Ten Championship Game. A loss would just about eliminate No. 4 Ohio State (already a game behind Oregon, which it lost to head to head). No. 3 Penn State, despite being 7-0, would still face an uphill battle. In the days of the four-team playoff, it would have been hard to imagine a team not winning the conference making it to the dance (although, as Penn State fans now, it did happen sometimes).

But with triple the teams, Penn State will still be in control of its playoff destiny with a loss Saturday. After Ohio State, Penn State plays four games— vs. Washington, at Purdue, at Minnesota and vs. Maryland— that it will be heavily favored  to win. An 11-1 PSU that didn’t win the Big Ten may have missed the four team playoff. It wouldn’t miss the 12-team playoff.

FRANKLIN VS. DAY

Ryan Day and Ohio State are 5-0 against James Franklin and Penn State.

INDIANAPOLIS, IN – JULY 26: Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan day during the Big Ten Conference Media Days on July 26, 2023 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN (Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire)

Franklin and Ohio State coach Ryan Day have some similarities. They both coach in the Big Ten at two of America’s most renowned programs. But they also have a lot of differences.

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When Day became Ohio State’s head coach, he had never been a head coach before. When Franklin took over at Penn State, he had done so right after turning Vanderbilt into a winner. That feat seemed about as likely as Taylor Swift being penniless. In the years before Day became the boss, Ohio State fans had been spoiled by Urban Meyer. Therefore, they expected instant success with Day. Franklin took over a program that was still getting over being rocked by scandal and sanction. Although Penn State fans again expect excellence today, that’s because Franklin made the program back into one where double-digit wins were the norm and going too long without doing more felt like failure to many.

Day, on the other hand, is viewed by plenty how he’s apparently viewed by his old rival, former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh: “Born on third.”

Unlike Franklin at Vanderbilt, Day has never had to build a consistent loser into a winner.

Unlike Franklin at Penn State, Day has never had to turn a once proud program back into one of America’s best.

Instead, Day took over an operation that was already elite. Although he’s kept it at that level— he’s won 62 of the 71 games he’s coached— he hasn’t won a national title and he isn’t Urban Meyer. For many, that’s the only thing that matters. As frustrated as Penn State fans will be if Franklin loses to Ohio State again, it won’t touch the reaction Ohio State fans would have to a loss in Happy Valley.

NOT A MUST-WIN

Penn State HC James Franklin and the boys are buzzing at 7-0 and again have a high place in the rankings.

MADISON, WI – OCTOBER 26: Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin celebrates a touchdown durning a college football game between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Wisconsin Badgers on October 26th, 2024 at Barry Alvarez field inside Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, WI. (Photo by Dan Sanger/Icon Sportswire)

While a loss would leave Penn State still in a strong position to make the Playoff, a multi-loss Ohio State team would squarely be on the bubble. This wouldn’t be a big game if each team didn’t have something to lose. But Day and Ohio State have more on the line than Franklin and Penn State do.

Yes, falling to 1-10 against Ohio State would be a bad thing for Franklin. For QB Drew Allar, falling to 0-2 against his boyhood school would be far from ideal. But if Penn State loses, it’s still sitting pretty as far as making the Playoff goes. If Penn State wins, it would still have to beat Oregon to win the Big Ten. A loss to Oregon would likely leave it in the same position (the No. 5 seed) as it would be with a loss to Ohio State and an 11-1 finish.

If the four-team Playoff still existed, this would be a must-win. But because of the expanded Playoff field, it just isn’t that way for Franklin and Penn State.

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