By Saturday night at the latest, we’ll know exactly whether or not Penn State will be playing in the Big Ten title game Saturday, Dec. 5 in Indianapolis.
Oregon has already punched its ticket, and its opponent will be one of Indiana, Ohio State or Penn State.
Ohio State (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten), has wins over Indiana and PSU, so it has the clear edge despite all three teams having one loss. Because Penn State lost to Ohio State by fewer than Indiana did (seven points vs 23), it has the tiebreaker over Indiana.
Here’s a breakdown of the three scenarios that could play out Saturday, from most likely to least.
SCENARIO I: THE LIKELY
Zakee Wheatley tackles Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson.
What’s most likely to happen is that Ohio State beats Michigan. If the Buckeyes can do that as 19.5-point favorites, they will be in the Big Ten title game playing Oregon regardless of what PSU and Indiana do.
SCENARIO II: THE UNLIKELY
WEST LAFAYETTE, IN – NOVEMBER 16: Penn State Nittany Lions Head Coach James Franklin high fives players as they jog off the field after scoring during the college football game between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Purdue Boilermakers on November 16, 2024, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire)
If somehow Michigan beats Ohio State, then PSU moves to the driver’s seat. Penn State is a –24.5-point favorite over Maryland, so if Michigan can pull the upset, all that has to happen is Penn State avoiding one of its own.
SCENARIO III: THE CRAZY
COLUMBUS, OH – NOVEMBER 23: Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti talks to his players during the game against the Indiana Hoosiers and the Ohio State Buckeyes on November 23, 2024, at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)
The team that needs the most help is Indiana. The Hoosiers shouldn’t have any problem pounding 1-10 Purdue. But to make it to Indy, IU will need both Ohio State and Penn State to lose as massive home favorites. At No. 10, Indiana is a good bet to make it to the College Football Playoff without playing in the Big Ten title game, so one could debate if Indiana or Penn State would even want to make it there.
PSU is scheduled to take on Maryland at 3:30, with the game being broadcast on the Big Ten Network.
