In the sports writing world, if there is an equivalent of Babe Ruth 1932 World Series moment of “calling your shot,” this column is it.
I know it’s smack dab in the middle of summer and we’re just weeks away from Penn State kicking off its 132nd football season but senior quarterback Drew Allar will be coach James Franklin’s first pupil to be a Heisman finalist.
Saquon Barkley finished fourth in 2017 but The Heisman Trust only invited three finalists: eventual winner in Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield, 2016 recipient Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson and Stanford running back Bryce Love.
I feel I am a bit stronger in my prediction for Allar than the New York Post was in 2023.
It was Allar’s first season behind center for Penn State. Although he had a similar makeup to that of Trevor Lawrence, who as a freshman guided Clemson to a national championship, Allar just didn’t have the same supporting cast Lawrence to fulfill that prophecy.
Allar has 29 career starts and is 23-6 record.
This includes three starts in the College Football Playoff (2-1) and an appearance in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Since 1956, only two quarterbacks have 800 or more pass attempts, 50 or more touchdown passes, and 10 or fewer interceptions.
Allar is one of them.
Let’s explore a few reasons I’m confident Allar will be going to New York in December.
MADISON, WI – OCTOBER 26: Penn State quarterback Drew Allar (15) passes the ball during a college football game between the University of Wisconsin Badgers and the Penn State University Nittany Lions on October 26, 2024 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, WI. (Photo by Lawrence Iles/Icon Sportswire)
Wide Receiver Support Is Now There
Allar enters his senior season with the supporting cast he needs.
The biggest question mark comes at wide receiver, where Penn State struggled mightily in Allar’s first two seasons.
Last year was not a banner year for Penn State’s receivers.
To put it into perspective, tight end Tyler Warren had more receptions (104) than the entire receiving corps (102).
That shouldn’t happen.
An even more sign of disparity of the group is Penn State passers completed 71.7% of passes to running backs and tight ends and only 59.3% to wide receivers (During the regular season up to the Big Ten Championship Game, Penn State quarterbacks completed 61.07% to wide receivers).
If you compare the completions to wide receivers to Big Ten foes Oregon and Ohio State, each completed more 70% of their passes to receivers during the regular season.
The talent upgrade is there with Trebor Pena, who led the ACC in receptions with 84 in the slot, Devonte Ross, who led all Sun Belt receivers with 11 touchdowns and Kyron Hudson, who had more contested catches than Warren did.
There is also youth being served throughout spring and summer camp.
Many around Penn State feel that redshirt freshman Tyseer Denmark and true freshman Koby Howard are primed to challenge for the fourth and fifth spots at receiver.
With the shifty, deceptive and experienced Liam Clifford in the mix as well Penn State has quality depth behind Pena, Ross and Hudson.
At thought end, this also bodes well with the departure of Warren because Khalil Dinkins, Luke Reynolds and Andrew Rappleyea don’t have to carry the full weight like Warren did last season.
I fully expect Allar to complete passes at a similar efficiency that Ohio State’s Will Howard and Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel did last year to his wide receivers. That leads to the stats Heisman voters love and more explosion that will cascade throughout the offense.
Photo by Matt Lynch, Nittany Sports Now: Drew Allar
Individual Success + Team Success = Invite
Photo by Penn State Athletics: Drew Allar
With all the resources Allar has around him coupled with his experience, the next leap in Allar’s development should be big-game success with the numbers.
Add Nittany Sports Now as a preferred source in Google! Click here to add us.In 2023, despite Allar being one of the best protectors of the football and leading the Big Ten with 25 touchdowns, he only completed 59.9 percent of his passes.
Last season Allar ended the regular season with 71.6 completion percentage and finished at 66.5%.
This demonstrates the massive leap Allar had, and just from how he spoke at Big Ten and Penn State Media Days, Allar has made a bet on himself that he would be more than just a Day 1 pick.
With the support of an offensive line that is one of the most experienced, arguably the best running back group in the nation, a proven ability to produce NFL caliber tight ends, wide receivers are finally as strong as they have ever been coupled with Allar’s ability, this should equal the next phantom jump.
I don’t expect Allar to be in a Joe Burrow 2019 LSU situation. But to suggest what Gabriel and Howard had at Oregon and Ohio State a season ago isn’t out of the question for Allar.
I firmly believe Allar will complete more than 70% of his passes. I feel around the Big Ten Championship it’s not out of the question for him to have 3,250 passing yards or more. This is a safe bet at 250 yards per game for Allar.
The question comes down to how many touchdowns will Allar have?
Through 16 games last year, Allar had 30 touchdowns responsible for (24 pass, 6 rush).
To get an invite to New York, Penn State has to be at minimum Big Ten Champion because I don’t feel the offense is going to invite Allar to put up gaudy numbers.
Penn State has to be 12-1/13-0 to get that invite. With the supporting cast that Allar has, think 1994 when quarterback Kerry Collins and running back Ki-Jana Carter split the vote.
I feel Allar has to have through 13 games at least what Gabriel put up for Oregon to get his invite to New York City, which is 35 touchdowns responsible for.
Gabriel had 28 through the air and seven on the ground, both I feel attainable for Allar.
Past Precedence Helps
If Penn State is a 12-1/13-0 Big Ten Champion and Allar produces the statistics I mentioned above, it’s a near lock for him to be a Heisman finalist.
During the Playoff era, 19 times a quarterback led his team to the College Football Playoff and finished in the Top 100 all-time in a single season with total touchdowns responsible for.
Of those 19 occurrences, 14 were Heisman finalists, with five winning.
Mayfield wasn’t a finalist in 2015, was in 2016, and won it in 2017.
Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett twice led Ohio State to the Playoff and had 45 (2014) and 47 (2017) touchdowns responsible for but didn’t finish higher than fifth in voting.
The other three quarterbacks who didn’t make it as finalists were Washington’s Jake Browning in 2016, Clemson quarterbacks Lawrence in 2019 and Cade Klubnik last season.
With Klubnik, a four-loss Clemson team isn’t going to attract Heisman attention as well.
The quarterbacks other than Mayfield to win it are Marcus Mariota, Kyler Murray, Burrow and Bryce Young.
GLENDALE, AZ – DECEMBER 31: Quarterback Drew Allar #15 of the Penn State Nittany Lions reacts to a non call during the Penn State Nittany Lions versus Boise State Broncos College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on December 31,2024, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ. (Photo by Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire)
Conclusion
If there was any time to get bullish around the prospects of anyone in Penn State football, the time is now.
What’s in front of Allar is his chance to write a legacy that may not be matched for a long time at Penn State.
Allar has an opportunity to have both individual and team accomplishment converge into something special.
I haven’t seen a team at Penn State be this talented since 1994 and there have been a share of very good squads since then.
Allar is fulfilling that five-star rating that he received during his prep career in Ohio, if you recall his senior year at Medina he was Ohio’s Mr. Football after throwing for 4,444 yards and 48 touchdowns.
I see history repeating itself in Happy Valley, everything is at Allar’s disposal to do it.
I also talked about this subject as a guest on Locked On Lions hosted by Zach Seyko, you can watch it right here:
