Many are looking forward to the 2026 NFL Draft class of quarterbacks after the few franchise caliber options there were in the 2025 cycle.ย
One such option is Drew Allar, whom many felt after Penn Stateโs College Football Playoff run was a bonafide top 10 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, opted to return to improve his stock.
ESPNโs Matt Miller, however, has a different take on Allar.ย
Despite being in both Millerโs No. 5 and Jordan Reidโs No. 4 overall quarterback prospect for the 2026 Draft, Miller selected Allar as the toughest to rank.
Every quarterback in this class is tough to rank, but Penn State’s passer is the toughest. He flashes brilliance with a big arm and good mobility for his 6-foot-5, 238-pound size, but his decision-making is very hit-or-miss, especially against top opponents. His ability to clean up mental mistakes will determine where his stock goes as a senior. Allar could be the top QB in the class … or slip to Day 3.
The Case For Allar
GLENDALE, AZ – DECEMBER 31: Quarterback Drew Allar #15 of the Penn State Nittany Lions reacts to a non call during the Penn State Nittany Lions versus Boise State Broncos College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on December 31,2024, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ. (Photo by Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire)
What scouts marvel at Allar is all his physical tools. His size and arm have everybody salivating at the opportunity to maximize those skills through their development.ย
Allar is Penn Stateโs career leader in completion percentage (62.9%) and has the lowest interception percentage (1.1%) amongst all Penn State passers. This all despite in his two seasons as a starter, never having the receivers that had the skill to complement his arm.
Another monster season could have Allar rewrite the Penn State record book in all major categories. Having led Penn State to a Big Ten Championship Game appearance, Playoff – along with three New Yearโs Six bowl appearancesโ demonstrates Allarโs ability to win at a high level.
The Case Against Allar
MIAMI GARDENS, FL – JANUARY 09: Quarterback Drew Allar #15 of the Penn State Nittany Lions reacts after throwing an interception during the Penn State Nittany Lions versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Orange Bowl on January 9, 2025 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fl. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire)
Miller is fair in his assessment of the biggest weakness of Allarโs game: his mental and decision-making aspect in crucial moments.ย
Look no further than the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Orange Bowl against Notre Dame. Allarโs poor decision and throw that led to the Christian Gray interception that led Notre Dame to a win is one that could be franchise altering in the NFL.
That throw could be worth tens of millions of dollars in immediate impact, but long-term is immeasurable.ย
In five major games prior to the 2024-25 College Football Playoff run, those being in the 2023 Peach Bowl, 2024 Big Ten Championship, and against Ohio State/Michigan, Allar completed on average 51.4% of his passes – three of those games had a sub 50% completion percentage, 185.6 yards in those game.ย
All of Allarโs six touchdowns in those games came in garbage time when the game was decided or trailed by a significant margin (2024 Big Ten Championship).ย
Fair Assessment?
If Allar makes that same decision he did in the Orange Bowl in, say, a NFL conference championship game, that costs a franchise millions. There is no beating around the bush on that subject.ย
This may be an extreme analogy, but remember Joe Burrow wasnโt exactly lighting the world on fire at LSU prior to 2019. Then Burrow was flanked by Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase, rewrote many NCAA records, won the Heisman, national championship and went No. 1 overall.ย
In a similar vein, Allar has that Burrow opportunity. Penn State did everything humanly possible to leverage the portal to significantly upgrade the biggest weakness they have had in the Allar era at wide receiver.ย
Trebor Pena, Kyron Hudson, and Devonte Ross might not be Jefferson, Chase, and Thaddeus Moss but they are the most talented wide receivers Penn State has had since Jahan Dotson, KJ Hamler and Parker Washington.ย
This should bode well for Allar.
Despite the deficiency at wide receiver, Allar still managed to complete 66.5% of his passes, second all-time to Kerry Collins’ landmark 1994 season. Allar has the same opportunity Collins does and if he puts it together, Allar wonโt be the toughest to rank.
