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Penn State Basketball Takeaways: Crunch Time Struggles Are Leading Nittany Lions Astray

Penn State Basketball, Michigan Basketball, Kachi Nzeh
Kachi Nzeh (four points and three rebounds) elevates for an at-rim finish against Michigan. (Penn State Athletics)

With two minutes and 11 seconds left in Monday’s game, Ace Baldwin Jr. drove hard right and drew contact from Tre Donaldson, sending the PSU guard to the free-throw line. Baldwin made both free throws to give Penn State a five-point lead, its largest of the night, with 2:08 left.

On the ensuing possession, Michigan struggled to get past the point of attack, barely coming within reach of the 3-point arc. Head coach Dusty May was forced to use one of his last two timeouts, hoping to conjure something to trim Michigan’s deficit.

By this point, PSU had just extended its scoring run to 15-3, converting at the free throw line and from behind the arc. Nick Kern Jr. (16 points) and Baldwin (15 points) had responses all game for the Wolverines, with the former doing most of his damage in the first half and the latter leading the charge in the second. The momentum seemed to be on Penn State’s side as time was winding down. Now, it was just about getting a stop and taking care of the basketball.

Out of the timeout, Donaldson received a screen from Danny Wolf, turned the corner on Baldwin, and found Roddey Gayle Jr. on a back cut, making it a three-point game. No stop.

Penn State Basketball, Michigan Basketball, Ace Baldwin Jr.

Penn State guard Ace Baldwin Jr. (1) drives to the basket past Michigan guard Nimari Burnett (4) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Monday, Jan. 27, 2025, in Ann Arbor, Mich. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)AP

Baldwin, one of the top assist men in the country, then brought the ball up to hopefully manufacture some points. Instead, he placed a pass right outside Kern’s reach out of a pick-and-roll, giving Michigan some life—0-for-2 on the game management checklist.

Penn State fought defensively on the next possession, poking the ball out of bounds twice. But, against a dwindling shot clock, Donaldson curled off another Wolf screen and rose up from the free throw line for two more points. The Wolverines now trailed by one.

On Penn State’s next possession, the ball stuck with Kern, who isolated on Wolf. He drove right but was turned away at the basket, sparking a fast-break opportunity for Michigan, which Donaldson cashed in on. He snatched back on Freddie Dilione V from the right wing and drilled his third 3 of the night, giving Michigan a two-point advantage. The Wolverines had just gone on a 7-0 run. How would Penn State respond?

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With 27 seconds left and one timeout, Mike Rhoades opted to let his veteran players make something happen on their own. The result? A contested Baldwin 3 that hit the back of the iron and was corralled by Donaldson. PSU fouled, allowing Donaldson (21 points, seven of the last nine for Michigan) to ice the game at the charity stripe.

The last-second heave by Baldwin as time expired was emblematic of his team’s struggles in conference play. Although his attempt wouldn’t have altered the outcome of the game, it was worth a shot to see if anything would work. Nothing else has.

TURNOVERS

Michigan entered Monday night averaging the most turnovers per game (15) in the Big Ten. On the other hand, Penn State had turned its opponents over on 18% of their possessions (second in the Big Ten).

However, it was Michigan that won the turnover battle (9-18), turning Penn State’s season high in that category into 19 points. While Baldwin ranks second in the conference assists per game (7.9), he also leads it with 3.8 turnovers. He finished Monday’s game with six assists and five turnovers.

Of the eight Penn State players to log minutes in the loss, only two had one or fewer turnovers. One of those players, Miles Goodman, only played three minutes.

CRUNCH TIME NUMBERS

Penn State has been within four points or had the lead in the final two minutes in six of its seven conference losses. In those six games, PSU is being outscored and shooting inefficiently in the final two minutes:

  • PSU points in the final two minutes: 13
  • Opponent points in the final two minutes: 24
  • PSU field goal percentage in the final two minutes: 7-of-28 (25%)
  • Opponent field goal percentage in the final two minutes: 7-for-16 (43.8%)

Not every close game will bounce the right way for a team but to lose this amount in a deep Big Ten conference is troublesome. Penn State is now 16th in the conference and only 15 of the 18 teams to make it to the postseason. Rhoades and Co. will have to find solutions to their recent struggles and find them quickly. With only 10 games left, a postseason berth can’t come down to a last-second scramble because so far, those haven’t panned out in Penn State’s favor.

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