Smeltzer: Rating National Title Chances for Each Penn State Wrestling Projected Starter

Penn State wrestling will have the individual national champions this coming season as it always does.

The question is how many?

Through InterMat’s preseason rankings, we have an idea of who will start for Cael Sanderson’s wrestling empire.

Based on those projections, I’ve rated each PSU starter’s chance to win a title on a 1-10 scale.

Before I get into it, a couple of notes.

1. I know that the season is still more than a month out and these chances are subject to change.

2. I don’t give out 10s often for anything in life.

Now, let’s dive on in.

PENN STATE WRESTLING: 125

LUKE LILLEDAHL

Likelihood: 5

A five likelihood might seem a little high for a true freshman but there are two factors to consider.

1. Lilledahl is the No. 1 recruit from the 2024 class.

2. The 125 class was a crapshoot last season and could well be again.

Last season, Arizona State’s Richard Figueroa came into the national championships seeded No. 8 and won the whole thing. Figueroa is rightly ranked No. 1 to start this season, but that doesn’t guarantee anything. Purdue’s Matt Ramos was No. 1 to start last year and is No. 5 to start this season. Why did he drop? He finished fourth at Big Tens and went 2-2 at NCAA’s.

Anything can happen at 125, and Lilledahl figured to be a national champ one day. Why not next March?

PENN STATE WRESTLING: 133

BRAEDEN DAVIS

Davis is a good wrestler who looked like a great one on multiple occasions as a true freshman last season. He gave Penn State wrestling a formidable 125-pounder for the first time in what felt like forever, and the fact that he has a good chance of unseating former All-American Aaron Nagao at 133 speaks volumes about his potential. InterMat has Davis at No. 11, and winning the national title at 133 will be a tall task. But there’s no reason to think that Davis can’t be an All-American for the first time.

Likelihood: 3

PENN STATE WRESTLING: 141

BEAU BARTLETT

I could see Bartlett winning a national championship. I could just as easily see  Bartlett ending his career as one of the best Penn State wrestling performers who didn’t win one. Bartlett was the man to beat at 141 for a good chunk of last season. Then, Ohio State’s Jesse Mendez crushed Bartlett’s dreams, first in the Big Ten Championship bout, then in the national title bout. Mendez is back, as is Northern Colorado’s Andrew Alirez, who won the national title in 2023 and beat Bartlett in the semifinals. Bartlett will also have to deal with Nebraska’s Brock Hardy, who knocked him out of the Big Ten Championships in 2023. Bartlett has beat the best— including Mendez and Hardy— before. But who wins 141 is anyone’s guess.

Likelihood: 5

PENN STATE WRESTLING: 149

SHAYNE VAN NESS

Who knows what happens if Van Ness doesn’t miss all of last season with an injury. The fourth-place national finisher in 2023 came into the next season ranked No. 2 but ended up having the year stolen from him. Van Ness came into the season ranked two spots ahead of Virginia Tech’s Caleb Henson, who ended up winning the whole thing. It’s certainly conceivable to believe Van Ness could have done the same if he had the chance. But that’s in the past, and now, Van Ness is back. Along with Henson, who is ranked No. 1, No. 3 Ty Watters of West Virginia, who finished fourth nationally last season, returns and will wrestle Van Ness at the NWCA All-Star Classic Nov. 16 in Rec Hall. No. 4 Kyle Parco (Iowa) and No. 5 Ridge Lovett of Nebraska, who spent almost all of last season ranked No. 1, are also men Van Ness would likely have to face during the Big Ten dual meet season.

Likelihood: 6

PENN STATE WRESTLING: 157

TYLER KASAK

The man who eventually won the 149 job as a true freshman for Penn State wrestling last season is now projected by InterMat to compete at 157. Considering Kasak came to Penn State as a 141-pounder, this would be a significant jump. But InterMat is among those confident he’ll do well. Kasak is ranked No. 5 and will be facing No. 3 Peyten Kellar (Ohio) at the All-Star Classic. He’ll also likely take on top-ranked Jacori Teemer (Iowa) and No. 4 Antrell Taylor (Nebraska) during the dual meet season. With defending national champ and Penn State star Levi Haines likely changing weight classes, 157 is wide open, and despite the stiff competition, Kasak is capable of taking advantage.

Likelihood: 5

165

MITCHELL MESENBRINK

When I prefaced this column by saying there’s likelihoods are subject to change, Mesenbrink was who I was thinking of. Last season, not a lot of people expected a guy with two college matches under his belt at Cal Baptist to come within a whisker of winning a national title. But that happened, and because that happened, Mesenbrink enters this season the man to beat. The No. 2 wrestler is Iowa’s Mikey Caliendo, who Mesenbrink beat during the regular season, tech-falled at the Big Ten Championships and majored in the NCAA Semifinals. Yeah, I like Mesenbrink’s chances.

Likelihood: 9

174

Levi Haines

If Haines were still at 157, he’d probably be right there with Mesenbrink as a heavy favorite in his class.  But because he’s likely a new weight class, things are a little more interesting. Penn State’s Carter Starocci, who won four national titles at 174, is likely moving to 184, which makes 174 wide open relative to the past several years. Haines is No. 2 at his (probable) new class, behind only Missouri’s Keegan O’Toole, a four-time All-American and two-time national champ at 165 who Haines beat 6-0 at the Senior World Team Trials in Omaha last month. Granted, that match was in freestyle, where teammate Alex Facundo beat Haines 6-0 at the U.S. Olympic Trials this past April in Happy Valley, but it still shows that Haines can be one of, if not the best at 174. He’ll be taking on defending national runner-up Rocco Welsh of Ohio State next month at the All-Star Classic, and we’ll find out more then.

Likelihood: 6

184

Carter Starocci

I wanted to make Starocci’s likelihood a 10. I really did. The reason I decided against it was because it felt it would have been a slight to Northern Iowa’s Parker Keckeisen, who won it at 184 last year and could well have multiple titles if not for Starocci’s former teammate and current close friend, Aaron Brooks, who also won four national titles. Keckeisen also would have likely won the Hodge last season if not for Brooks— who competed that year at 197.

Keckeisen is a four-time All-American who has never finished lower than third at NCAA’s. So, yeah, he’ll be a challenge for Starocci and will challenge him directly at the All-Star Classic.

With all of this said, I am not going to bet against a guy who won a national title on one leg.

Likelihood: 8

Josh Barr

Barr, ranked No. 23, has yet to prove himself as a full-time starter but this Starocci quote from last season  is pretty eye-opening, in a good way.

“I think he’ll be a multiple time national champ for sure,” Starocci told reporters after the Indiana dual meet in which Barr took care of Indiana’s Roman Rogotzke with a 13-4 major decision.

For Starocci, Barr is “one of those kids.”

“You just got to kill him because he’s going to keep coming after you just nonstop. When I wrestle someone for the first time, just to see their breaking point. He just never stopped. I think having that (mentality), the skills are going to keep adding on every single practice.”

Likelihood: 2

Greg Kerkvliet

The defending heavyweight champ is back, and there’s no reason to think he won’t repeat.

Likelihood: 9