There’s no telling what the long-term ramifications of Northern Illinois’ (+28.5) monumental 16-14 upset win over No. 5 Notre Dame in South Bend will be but it certainly doesn’t hurt Penn State.
IT'S A PARTY 🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️@NIU_Football | #MACtion pic.twitter.com/KyfIyHTUcR
— #MACtion (@MACSports) September 7, 2024
For the short term, Notre Dame was three sports ahead of Penn State in the AP Poll, and this marks the first time in the brief 2024 season that a team ahead of No. 8 PSU has lost.
With that said, because PSU only beat fellow MAC school Bowling Green by 7 (it was favored by five touchdowns), it’s hard to tell what will happen with the rankings.
But Northern Illinois’ win could pay long-term dividends for Penn State. Coming into the week, Notre Dame had the highest chance of going undefeated of any school (22.4%) with Penn State being second (12.4%) per ESPN FPI. Despite such high odds of going unbeaten, Notre Dame cannot be one of the four teams to get a playoff bye because it isn’t in a conference. So even if Notre Dame went 12-0 and won every game by a million points, the best it could have done was be a No. 5 seed in the college football playoff since the top four seeds and byes belong to the Power Four conference champions.
If Penn State wins the Big Ten, Northern Illinois’ heroics will be irrelevant as far as PSU is concerned. There’s also a chance that Penn State plays itself comfortably into a playoff spot and wouldn’t have needed ND to falter. But with the magnitude of Notre Dames loss and with the Irish playing what looks to be a weak schedule (no top 20 opponents scheduled until USC in the regular-season finale), it looks like an at-large bid may have opened up unless ND gets it together in a big way. Even if ND does make it, its seeding won’t be what it would have been with an undefeated season, which could mean the difference between Penn State playing at home and on the road should it get an At-Large bid.
