Rocco Becht did not need an analytics sheet Tuesday to explain what has happened to him.
Penn State’s quarterback boiled his recent problems down to two things: hit the throws that are there, and when they are not, use his legs to create something positive.
“I think being able to hit the open guys, being able to hit the easy completions,” Becht said. “I’ve been in these positions a lot. And I think for me, it’s just getting back to the basics, the fundamentals.”
That sounds simple.
The numbers behind Penn State’s passing game suggest it is anything but.
The dividing line in Becht’s season is impossible to ignore.
Wide receiver Koby Howard was injured against Buffalo after emerging as Penn State’s most dangerous receiving threat. Through three games, Howard had 12 receptions for 344 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 28.7 yards per catch.
Since then, Becht and Penn State have spent two weeks trying to figure out how to replace something that is much more difficult to manufacture than Howard’s catches.
They have to replace his gravity.
Against Wisconsin, Becht completed 12 of 29 passes for 114 yards with no touchdowns and an interception.
Against Northwestern, Becht improved to 26 of 41 for 243 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions.
That is just over 50% completion of his passes for 357 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions over the last two games.
The completion percentage against Northwestern looked healthier. The offense did not.
Penn State’s longest completion was 26 yards. It averaged 5.9 yards per pass attempt, and Becht threw 41 times to reach 243 yards. The Nittany Lions finished with only 291 yards of total offense in a 34-13 loss.
That gets to the heart of what Penn State must solve without Howard.
Becht is completing passes. Penn State needs him to create consequences with them.
For the season, Becht has been excellent when protected. On 108 attempts from a clean pocket, he has completed 75 passes for 1,010 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions.
Under pressure, everything collapses: 9-of-24 for 98 yards, one touchdown and one interception, with a 34.0 passing grade per Pro Football Focus.
That is a staggering divide.
It also reinforces something Becht said Tuesday when discussing using his legs. When the initial picture changes, Penn State needs him to stop trying to salvage every play from inside the structure.
“When something’s not there, being able to use my legs a little bit more,” Becht said. “Maybe if the front side’s not there in a read, being able to just cut off this backside and just being able to step up and run, get positive yards for the team.”
Wisconsin offered evidence that can work. Becht rushed 10 times for 23 net yards and scored Penn State’s only offensive touchdown.
That does not mean Penn State should turn Becht into a running quarterback. It means his legs can become an answer when a passing game missing its biggest explosive threat doesn’t provide one immediately.
Because there are still throws available.
Becht is 18-of-28 for 359 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions on throws between 10 and 19 yards downfield. His 73.9 passing grade in that range is solid.
Down the middle at intermediate depth, he has been even better: 13-of-20 for 275 yards and three touchdowns.
That should be a major part of the answer.
The deep ball is much more complicated.
Becht has attempted 26 passes of 20-plus yards, completing eight for 286 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. But almost all of the success has occurred between the numbers.
On deep-middle throws, Becht is 6-of-9 for 225 yards and three touchdowns with a 95.1 PFF passing grade.
Outside the numbers?
He is 2-of-17.
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Becht is 1-of-10 for 35 yards with an interception throwing deep left and 1-of-7 for 26 yards throwing deep right.
Howard gave Penn State somebody capable of changing a game vertically. Without him, defenses have less reason to fear that one missed assignment or lost leverage will become six points.
The replacement cannot simply be “throw deep more.”
It has to be throw deep better and to the areas where Becht has actually demonstrated he can win.
That also brings Brett Eskildsen into the conversation.
Becht acknowledged Tuesday that Penn State needs to give Eskildsen more opportunities downfield.
The two had a history of connecting on explosive plays at Iowa State, but that has not translated consistently to Penn State.
Against Wisconsin, Eskildsen was targeted six times and did not catch a pass. Against Northwestern, he caught six for 45 yards.
That is improvement, but six catches for 45 yards does not replace what Howard was doing to a defense.
Chase Sowell has become Penn State’s most productive wide receiver in Howard’s absence, catching six passes for 70 yards against Wisconsin and five for 68 yards and a touchdown against Northwestern. But he was targeted 12 times Friday.
Again: production, but not enough punishment.
There is another number Penn State should lean into and that is with play action.
Becht has attempted only 30 play-action passes this season, completing 20 for 352 yards and three touchdowns against one interception. He averages 11.7 yards per attempt and owns an 80.3 PFF passing grade on those throws.
Without play action, his average drops to 7.4 yards per attempt and his PFF passing grade falls to 64.6.
That seems especially important for an offense whose head coach and quarterback openly acknowledge it has not established whether it wants to be a running or passing team.
“I think what Coach Campbell states is, like, we just don’t really know if we’re a run team or a pass team right now,” Becht said.
Perhaps the answer is not choosing one.
Perhaps it is making one create opportunities for the other.
“I think it starts with an explosive play,” Becht said. “When you get the running game going, you have an explosive run, it brings the defense down a little bit. And then now we’re able to do run play-action passes. We’re able to throw the ball down the field.”
That is the formula Penn State needs while Howard remains sidelined.
Get Becht clean. Use play action. Attack the intermediate middle of the field where he has been at his best. Give Eskildsen opportunities to restore a vertical element. Let Becht take yards with his legs when the picture breaks down instead of forcing the ball into disappearing windows.
And most importantly, hit the throws that are there.
Becht has already shown what the offense can look like when he does. Before the Wisconsin game, he had nine touchdown passes without an interception through three games. Since Howard went down, he has one touchdown against three interceptions and Penn State is 0-2.
Howard’s absence explains part of that decline.
It cannot become an excuse for it.
Penn State learned over the last two weeks how much Howard changed the geometry of its offense. Now Becht, Taylor Mouser and the remaining receivers have to figure out how to change it back.
Becht called it getting back to the basics.
The numbers suggest he is right.
But they also show Penn State exactly which basics have the best chance of getting its quarterback, and its season, moving forward.
